RBA Nov 2024 | Our Predictions Clash: When Will Rates Drop?

It’s the penultimate RBA Cash Rate Announcement of 2024, and our hosts Ben Kingsley and Evan Lucas are back once again – speaking to the RBA’s latest decision and exploring the most recent economic data from Australia and around the world. 

Join us as we unpack the usual key topics such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, consumer and business confidence, central bank decisions, and more. 

Highlights from this episode: 

• Australia: Sticky Inflation and the Timing of the Next Rate Cut 

Inflation remains the most crucial data point for Australia, with Evan sharing his thoughts on prioritising childcare subsidies. Ben and Evan also have differing opinions on the direction of rates in 2025 – leading to a $50 bet. 

• US: All Eyes on the Federal Elections  

We look at the potential impacts the next President of the United States will have, both domestically and globally. While rates are on their way down, the timing and pace of further rates cuts remains a little uncertain. We also consider whether Australia might mirror the US’s moves on rates next year. 

• China: Anaemic Growth Despite Aggressive Stimulus Packages 

The Chinese economy is caught between President Xi’s fiscal policies and the stringent financial regulations from 2018–19 that he remains committed to. China’s economy needs at least 5% annual growth to sustain itself, and further measures may be needed to stimulate the domestic economy, especially if a Trump presidency, with its tougher stance on exports, complicates trade for China. 

• EU: Germany’s Tariffs on Chinese EVs 

For the first time since World War II, German manufacturing giants like Volkswagen are showing signs of strain. Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, but economic fragility here could influence the European Central Bank’s future moves. As Germany’s economy wavers, the broader European market could also be at risk. We discuss the implications of a Trump presidency and its proposed tariffs on exports, as well as the impact of the Ukraine war, especially with Trump signalling a reluctance to fund the conflict. 
 

Time Stamps 

World Economic Update Segment 

US 
01:20 – Federal Elections 
03:20 – Inflation 
05:36 – Cash Rate (Interest Rates) 
08:05 – Unemployment 
11:24 – Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 
12:14 – Retail Sales 
13:34 – Business Confidence 
16:16 – US Key Takeaways 

China 
17:54 – GDP
18:18 – Cash Rate (Interest Rates)
21:56 – Unemployment
22:20 – Retail Sales
23:17 – Business Confidence
24:19 – China Key Takeaways

Eurozone 
27:03 – Inflation 
27:46 – Cash Rate (Interest Rates) 
30:55 – Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 
31:36 – Business Confidence 
32:27 – Eurozone Key Takeaways 

Australian Economic Update Segment 

33:12 – Inflation 
38:09 – Inflation Comparison by Country 
39:45 – Headline Inflation Components 
42:00 – Sticky Inflation vs Non-Sticky Inflation 
45:06 – “Life Admin” vs Headline Inflation 
47:15 – Evan & Ben’s $50 Bet: When Will the Next Rate Cut Be? 
53:05 – RBA’s Interest Rate Decision 
54:02 – Unemployment 
56:06 – Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 
56:57 – Business Confidence 
59:33 – New Home Sales 
1:03:07 – Australia Key Takeaways 

1:03:41 – Disclaimer 

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