Blog post by Empower Wealth

(LIVE) RBA Sep 2026 | Rates Hit a 15-Year High. What Happens Next?

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% this afternoon — the highest level in 15 years, and the fourth increase this year.

The decision was unanimous. And the statement that came with it made clear the Board doesn’t consider the job done.

The RBA told us this was coming

What made today unusual wasn’t the decision. It was how heavily it was signposted.

Earlier this month, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser went on 7.30 and put it about as plainly as a central banker can: inflation is the one big problem, and the question now is whether enough has been done or more is needed. He named three risks pushing inflation up rather than down — the Middle East conflict, an unexpected global boom driven by AI, and the weakness of Australia’s supply potential.

Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter followed with her own hawkish remarks, and market pricing moved from around 86% to above 90%.

For Ben and Evan, the communication also raised a bigger question about the RBA’s credibility and its determination not to let inflation become entrenched.

What the statement actually said

Three drivers, stated up front: the Middle East conflict has broadened and energy prices are well above what the August forecasts assumed; AI-related demand is pushing up global prices for technology goods; and pressure remains on domestic capacity.

Then the line worth paying most attention to. The RBA’s liaison program — its own economists talking directly to businesses, separate from ABS data — is finding that firms are facing cost pressures and are either raising prices or looking to.

That’s the Board saying it didn’t need to wait for the next CPI print. It’s hearing it from businesses directly.

On the outlook, the Board said it will continue to do what it considers necessary, “including increasing the cash rate further if needed.”

November is live

Ben and Evan have been discussing the possibility of further rate rises for the past two meetings. Following today’s announcement, attention has now shifted to whether the RBA will raise rates for a fifth time this year.

During the LIVE, Evan noted that eight of the nine economists he was following considered the November meeting a live possibility.

The next major date to watch is 28 October, when the September inflation figures are released. If quarterly underlying inflation remains stubbornly high, it could strengthen the case for another increase on Melbourne Cup Day.

Markets are pricing roughly an 80% chance the cash rate reaching 4.85% by the end of the year.

Worth noting where that puts us internationally: Australia now has one of the highest policy rates in the developed world, second only to Iceland among major advanced economies.

Watch the full session

Ben and Evan went considerably deeper than this — including the productivity problem that sits underneath all of it, why a home now takes 31 months to deliver instead of 11, and what’s happening across the US, China and Europe.

Watch the replay →

Our next economic and RBA update is on Tuesday 3 November — Melbourne Cup Day — where we’ll also be running a deep dive into productivity and why it matters more than almost anything else on this list.

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Tags: Australian economy, Australian property market, Cash Rate, Current Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Home Loan, Inflation, Interest Rate, Interest Rate Announcement, Monetary Policy, mortgage broking, Property Market, property prices, RBA, rba cash rate, RBA Rate, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Unemployment