Blog post by Empower Wealth

(LIVE) RBA June 2026 | Will the RBA Hold at 4.35%?

After three consecutive rate rises, the question has shifted… is the RBA ready to pause, or is there still more tightening to come?

On Tuesday 16 June at 2:30pm AEST, the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver its fourth cash rate decision of 2026. With unemployment rising, growth slowing and several major banks now arguing the cash rate has likely peaked, the case for a pause has strengthened.

What’s Happening

The economic picture has shifted meaningfully since May’s hike to 4.35%.

The most significant development has been the rise in unemployment. April’s labour force data showed the jobless rate increasing to 4.5% — the highest since November 2021 — with employment falling by around 19,000 people.

That’s a meaningful shift, and it gives the Board reason to pause before tightening further.

At the same time, inflation remains the stubborn variable. The RBA’s May statement pointed to the Middle East conflict and higher fuel prices as key inflation risks, including the potential for second-round effects across goods and services.

The RBA’s May forecasts also have trimmed mean inflation remaining above 3% until mid-2027, before easing back towards the target band.

It’s a genuine tension: inflation says hold firm, while the labour market says ease off.

Is the Tightening Cycle Over?

The major banks are increasingly leaning that way, at least for now.

CBA, ANZ and NAB economists expect a hold in June and now see the cash rate as having likely peaked. Westpac remains the outlier, forecasting further hikes that would take the cash rate to 4.85%.

Join Us LIVE for the RBA & Economic Update

Join Ben Kingsley and economist Evan Lucas LIVE from 2:00pm AEST on Tuesday 16 June as they unpack the RBA’s rate decision, the latest economic data, and what the Board’s language signals about the path ahead.

If the video above hasn’t refreshed by 2:10pm, head to our YouTube channel to join the discussion.

What This Means for Mortgage Holders

A hold tomorrow doesn’t mean the pressure is off.

Rates are still at 4.35% and the cumulative impact of this year’s three hikes is still working its way through household budgets. For a variable-rate borrower with a $700,000 mortgage, this year’s cumulative 75 basis points of increases could mean hundreds of dollars more in monthly repayments, depending on their loan structure, rate and remaining term.

The more important signal from tomorrow will be the RBA’s tone.

A hawkish hold — one that keeps the door open to future rate rises — means borrowers should still be stress-testing their position. A softer statement could bring forward expectations of cuts, which may influence fixed-rate pricing in the market.

Either way, now is a smart time to make sure you’re on the most competitive rate available.

If your fixed rate is coming up for renewal, or you simply haven’t reviewed your loan in a while, working with an experienced mortgage broker means you’re not limited to what your current bank puts forward.

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Tags: Australian economy, Australian property market, Cash Rate, Current Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Home Loan, Inflation, Interest Rate, Interest Rate Announcement, Monetary Policy, mortgage broking, Property Market, property prices, RBA, rba cash rate, RBA Rate, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Unemployment